Many Americans who did not vote for Donald Trump are soul-searching to make some sense of the election results last week.  Pundits point to many reasons, including inflation, Biden’s late exit from the race, the country’s reluctance to accept a woman as our leader, and immigration.

But one of the consistent reasons posited for Trump’s popularity, both in 2016 and 2024, has been the working-class’s backlash against “globalism.”  This has led to a resurgence of popularity in isolationism and the notion of “America First.”

While it may be a futile effort, I will try to use this blog to argue that the wholesale acceptance of isolationism is misguided, and will not lead to better lives for the many Americans who support the idea.

“Globalism” has taken on a nasty connotation due among many due, in large part, to the loss of well-paid manufacturing jobs in the US.  This, in turn, has hurt the working-class, a large demographic that has consistently supported Trump. 

Even though Biden had some success in increasing manufacturing jobs during his presidency, the perception remains that the Democrats are “globalists” indifferent to the plight of workers, while Trump’s Republican party believes in “America First,” which will uplift the prospect of workers.

The irony is that for decades more traditional Republicans strongly advocated international trade as beneficial on balance.  Trump has reversed this policy, and transformed his party so that it now takes a diametrically opposed view on trade.  He now threatens high tariffs and advances hostility to international trade - even with our close allies and trading partners in Europe.

I understand the appeal of Trump’s position given many of the adverse effects of liberalized international trade over the last 30 years.  But I would argue that it will be a huge mistake for this country to pull up the draw bridge and withdraw from being a full participant in international trade. Policies that take a meat cleaver rather than a scalpel to address the negative impacts of trade will do more harm than good.

This is especially true with respect to trade with Europe as well other developed countries (such as Canada, Japan, Korea, and Australia) - which share our democratic values and commitment to fair trade rules, labor standards, and environmental standards.  These countries are not sucking jobs from the US.  Like us, they have higher wages than the less developed countries of the world.  Therefore, imposing tariffs, or otherwise taking a protectionist stance against Europe, is not likely to create manufacturing jobs in the US. 

In fact, if the new administration starts a trade war with Europe, workers on both sides of the Atlantic will be the ones to suffer the most. 

First, high tariffs almost certainly will lead to higher costs for American consumers.  This will be most clearly seen in the costs of consumer goods imported from abroad.  But it also will apply to goods that are assembled in the US, as many American manufacturers rely on component parts from overseas.  Some US companies will fail as a result of these higher production costs.

Second, it is likely that there will be retaliatory tariffs imposed on US companies that export goods.  Europe is the biggest foreign market for American goods and services. If Europe is not buying as many American products, then American companies will need to scale back production, and American workers will be laid off.  And you can bet that retaliation also will apply to agricultural products, which will hurt American farmers. 

Third, if there is a problem with international trade, it mostly resides with China.  Trump has mostly been on the right side of this issue, and continuing to be tough in dealing with China’s unfair trade practices is warranted.  But if we start a trade war with Europe, and otherwise erode our friendly relationship it, this will undermine our ability to deal effectively with China. 

Both the US and Europe have been hurt by China’s trade policies, and there is a common interest in getting China to behave.  China’s economy depends on access to American and European markets.  Coordinating with Europe in our China policy will effectively double the leverage that the US has.  If the US tries to reign in China, but at the same time antagonizes Europe with unwise and unwarranted tariffs, this will only allow China the opportunity to divide and conquer by making separate trade deals with Europe at the expense of the US. 

It strikes me as contrary to the American spirit to retreat from the world stage because we have encountered social and economic problems that are solvable.  We have always fashioned ourselves as industrious “can-do” people who can compete with anyone.  We should not retreat from a battle that can be won without destroying the whole system.  Our economy is larger and more innovative than any in the world.  We should work to resolve and improve the negative consequences of world trade, but doing so in ways that damage our relationships with our close trading partners will hurt our economy, and ultimately hurt American workers. 

One development to keep on eye on will be Elon Musk’s apparently increasing influence on Trump.  Musk must know that the intricacies in international trade are much more complicated than Trump’s rhetoric implies.  Perhaps Musk can be the whisperer that convinces Trump not to take extreme measures that could do damage to the lucrative transatlantic trade that largely has a positive effect on businesses and workers in both the US and Europe.