Emmanuel Macron has recently spoken forcefully about the need for a Israel to agree on a ceasefire in its assault on Hamas in Gaza.  His comments condemning Israel’s actions have been particularly noteworthy in that he has stopped just short of accusing Israel of war crimes. The US and UK have resisted any calls for a ceasefire and instead supported the limited “pauses” that Israel eventually agreed to.  The rest of Europe mostly has equivocated.

France has a long history of forging its own foreign policy, even when such conflicts with its allies.  In particular, it has been in direct opposition to the US on several occasions, although usually without garnering much support from the rest of Europe. 

Earlier this year, Macron made statements that were critical of the US China policy, characterizing it as being based on a “cold war mentality.”  He indicated that France might take a softer approach on issues such as trade and Taiwan.  The rest of Europe was not eager to follow suit.

And who could forget France’s criticism of the US on the US’s invasion of Iraq, which resulted in calls in the US Congress to change the name of French fries to freedom fries.  But France stood out among US allies in its level criticism of the Iraq War.

Even before that, France pulled out of full participation in the military integration of NATO from 1966 to 2009, largely due to resistance to US leadership od (some would say dominance over) the military alliance. But other NATO members did not follow suit in supporting France’s resistance to the US. 

This time, however, other Western governments may eventually feel compelled to follow France’s lead.  So far the West, even France, has been unified in its position that Israel has the right to defend itself, which includes the right to go after Hamas in retaliation for its attack.  But, regardless of the debate about the proportionality of Israel’s response, the stark fact is that there is red hot rage in the Arab world that is getting more and more intense, and which is causing increasing concern by numerous Western governments.   

Just turn on Al Jazeera and you will encounter a level of anger in their coverage of the war that is stunning.  Other international media, including CNN, the BBC, and France 24 also have given huge emphasis in their coverage of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Demonstrations in London and other European cities also are likely to grow, as will concern about the backlash and the possibility of terrorist attacks. Traveling in Europe you can see the increased security levels, which already were high.  If, god forbid, a terrorist attack were to occur in the US or Europe as a result of the war, the level of tension will grow exponentially. It is worth keeping on eye on whether the situation will cause any sort of rift in NATO, especially if the US deepens its military involvement or gets closer to direct conflict with Iran.

If the UK and other important European countries start to join Macron’s call for a ceasefire, it ultimately may be quite hard for the Biden administration to continue with its current policy.  The war is dividing the Democratic Party, and there are reports of significant dissent within the State Department over Biden’s unequivocal support for Israeli actions.  Anthony Blinken has been increasingly critical of civilian casualties, and it appears that he has been getting an earful in his meetings with Arab leaders.

The US is the only country in the world that has real leverage over Israel, with its long-standing military and economic support.  Thus, much of the world is looking to the US to exert pressure on Israel to moderate its conduct of the war, and asserting that the US is complicit with Israel for civilian deaths.

The US has usually strived to act in concert with its European allies on important issues of war and peace. But it also has remained steadfast in its support of Israel, often beyond what the Europeans have been willing to do. If America’s allies in the Europe begin to migrate toward Macron’s position and pull back from full-fledged support for Israel’s actions, will the US stand alone in fully supporting Israel no matter the consequences?